Fortune, Apr. 9, 2026

Trump’s 2027 budget gambles on rosy assumptions—and if they don’t pan out, America edges closer to a fiscal crisis driven by runaway interest costs

America’s long-term budget outlook just got a lot scarier. If the bond vigilantes are already circling, and if they’re looking for more reasons to dump U.S. bonds and push Treasury yields to crisis levels, they need do nothing more than read the newly issued Budget of the U.S. Government for Fiscal Year 2027 (starting Oct. 1, 2026). The document, compiled by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB), calls for big spending increases, chiefly for defense, and promises to finance the added outlays via revenues swelled by fantasy rates of economic growth and phantom savings. The document’s requests make an already dangerous outlook significantly riskier. The reason: If the expenditures blowout happens, and the rosy assumptions needed to offset the new outlays fail to materialize, America will edge even closer to a fiscal cataclysm prompted by a ruinous rise in interest expense.

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