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IMT Investment Outlook 11.2016

 

 Dear Reader:     

October started on a positive note       after strong September growth indicators were published and Mrs. Clinton       was leading the polls with a seemingly clear lead. As the outcome of the       election became more uncertain markets sold-off and remained volatile around       Election Day. After the result became clear, markets recovered       noticeably. It remains to be seen how Trump’s presidency will impact the       global economy and financial markets. For us the big question is whether       Trump will work constructively together with a qualified administration       or whether he is going to continue with ill-tempered rhetoric and       inconclusive, erratic policy ideas. We hope for the first outcome and it       seems to us that markets are giving this possibility a fair chance.
      Separately from the political events which dominated markets in October       and early November, macro indicators were very positive, confirming that       most economies are growing at a moderate but stable pace.
       
Best regards,

Thomas Trauth
CEO - IMT Asset Management

     

 THE SUN WILL RISE IN THE MORNING 


What can we expect from Trump’s presidency?

The US elections caused major market volatility around Election Day. It looked to us as though whenever the odds of a Trump victory rose, equity markets sold off, suggesting that market participants feared a Trump presidency. But after the Trump presidency became a fact, markets calmed almost instantly, recovering most of the pre-election losses. There are, however, a few exceptions, like the Mexican Peso, which has remained under selling pressure and reached historic lows. 

It is as if market participants reminded themselves of President Obama’s words the night before the election, that whatever the election result might be “the sun will rise in the morning”. In our view, the first market reaction seems to confirm Obama’s words and the notion that a Trump presidency will not turn out as bad as many expect. 

In our opinion, the major question is whether  .... 
 

Thomas Trauth
CEO - IMT Asset Management

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15.11.2016, 14:00 von Echo Master | 1398 Aufrufe

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