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IMT Investment Outlook 11.2016
Dear Reader:
October started on a positive note after strong September growth indicators were published and Mrs. Clinton was leading the polls with a seemingly clear lead. As the outcome of the election became more uncertain markets sold-off and remained volatile around Election Day. After the result became clear, markets recovered noticeably. It remains to be seen how Trump’s presidency will impact the global economy and financial markets. For us the big question is whether Trump will work constructively together with a qualified administration or whether he is going to continue with ill-tempered rhetoric and inconclusive, erratic policy ideas. We hope for the first outcome and it seems to us that markets are giving this possibility a fair chance. Separately from the political events which dominated markets in October and early November, macro indicators were very positive, confirming that most economies are growing at a moderate but stable pace. Best regards,
Thomas Trauth CEO - IMT Asset Management
THE SUN WILL RISE IN THE MORNING
What can we expect from Trump’s presidency?
The US elections caused major market volatility around Election Day. It looked to us as though whenever the odds of a Trump victory rose, equity markets sold off, suggesting that market participants feared a Trump presidency. But after the Trump presidency became a fact, markets calmed almost instantly, recovering most of the pre-election losses. There are, however, a few exceptions, like the Mexican Peso, which has remained under selling pressure and reached historic lows.
It is as if market participants reminded themselves of President Obama’s words the night before the election, that whatever the election result might be “the sun will rise in the morning”. In our view, the first market reaction seems to confirm Obama’s words and the notion that a Trump presidency will not turn out as bad as many expect.
In our opinion, the major question is whether ....
Thomas Trauth CEO - IMT Asset Management
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