Dear reader
In March markets calmed noticeably on the back of fading tail risks, better economic data, supportive central banks, and higher oil prices. Equity markets rallied and emerging markets continued to outperform. Most developed equity markets are still negative year to date, but the US S&P500 index managed to break even and is currently even slightly positive.
Despite ultra-low and even negative yields, bond markets performed well in the first quarter of this year. In addition, risky bonds have performed strongly since mid-February, especially emerging markets and high-yield bonds.
The earnings season has started, which will give us some insight into how well the corporate sector is doing. Expectations are very downbeat and we may see a couple of disappointments. However, as we will discuss in the following, the outlook for the coming quarters may not be so bad. In addition, we observe a very robust positive trend in the non-energy sectors.
Best regards,
Thomas Trauth
CEO - IMT Asset Management
Outlook for earnings may not be as bad as anticipated
In March risky assets recovered noticeably. Emerging equity markets gained 13%. The Brazilian Ibovespa index even rose 17% in March, followed by the Chinese CSI300, which rose 11.8%. The US S&P500 index was up 6.6%, outperforming the German DAX, which was up by 5%, and the EuroStoxx50, which was up by 2%. The Japanese Nikkei225 index rose 4.6% but remained the laggard regarding year-to-date performance. The Nikkei 225 lost 12% in the first quarter.
Risky bonds, especially emerging market bonds and high-yield bonds, performed very well in March. ....
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Dienstag, 16. April 2024, 09:39
